Learning Objectives

• Why ARMA Model?
• What is ARMA Model?
• ARMA Model - Implementation
• Notebook

Why ARMA Model?

In time series, we often rely on past data to estimate current and future values. However, sometimes that’s not enough.

When unexpected events like natural disasters, financial crises, or even wars happen, there can be a sudden shift in values. That's why we need models that simultaneously use past data as a foundation for estimates but can also quickly adjust to unpredictable shocks.

In this tutorial, we’re going to talk about one such model, called “ARMA”, which takes into account past values, as well as past errors when constructing future estimates.

What is ARMA Model?

• The name ARMA stands for Autoregressive Moving Average.
• It comes from merging two simpler models - the Autoregressive, or AR, and the Moving Average, or MA.

In the video below, the instructor will implement an ARMA model using catfish sales data. This data is a little different than what we have been looking at so far in this course. But don’t worry about the dataset; the concept and implementation remain the same.

ARMA Model - Implementation

Notebook

https://github.com/ritvikmath/Time-Series-Analysis/blob/master/ARMA%20Model.ipynb